A. Rublev has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -14.0 to 11.3, with at least one match where A. Rublev was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.8/10, leaving A. Rublev vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.

G. Diallo comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -11.3, meaning G. Diallo has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.3/10, leaving G. Diallo vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — G. Diallo has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -20 over recent matches.