J. Ostapenko comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -3.4, meaning J. Ostapenko has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.5/10, leaving J. Ostapenko vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +13 over the last five.

J. Paolini has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -6.7 to 8.0, with at least one match where J. Paolini was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving J. Paolini vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.