J. Pegula shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 32. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.4. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving J. Pegula vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. Pegula has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -12 over recent matches.

J. Ostapenko comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -2.2, meaning J. Ostapenko has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.4/10, leaving J. Ostapenko vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +19 over the last five.