Odds
Player analysis
L. Musetti has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -17.1 to 17.6, with at least one match where L. Musetti was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving L. Musetti vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +17 over the last five.
V. Vacherot comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 30 on average. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -7.3 to 11.6, with at least one match where V. Vacherot was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.1/10, leaving V. Vacherot vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +14 over the last five.
Recent form
3W 2L last 5
| 6 Mar | Fucsovics | 5-7 1-6 | L |
| 26 Jan | Fritz | 6-2 7-5 6-4 | W |
| 24 Jan | Machac | 5-7 6-4 6-2 5-7 6-2 | W |
| 22 Jan | Sonego | 6-3 6-3 6-4 | W |
| 11 Jan | Bublik | 6-7 3-6 | L |
3W 2L last 5
| 6 Apr | Cerundolo | 5-7 6-2 6-1 | W |
| 24 Mar | Fils | 4-6 7-6 4-6 | L |
| 23 Mar | Berrettini | 6-7 4-6 | W |
| 21 Mar | Navone | 3-6 4-6 | W |
| 10 Mar | Ruud | 6-3 3-6 4-6 | L |