HoustonClay1/8-finals3 Apr 2025 · 21:10
M. McDonald
#125 · USA
VS
B. Nakashima
#30 · USA

Odds

Market
McDonald
Nakashima
Winner

Player analysis

M. McDonald has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -20.3 to 29.4, with at least one match where M. McDonald was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving M. McDonald vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +12 over the last five.

DS 3.96Trend mixed

B. Nakashima has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +6.5. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. Serve quality has been average (6.7/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability.

DS 6.46Trend mixed

Recent form

Recent form bar chartWLLWL

2W 3L last 5

8 MarNakashima6-7 7-5 4-6W
6 MarNakashima6-3 6-4L
28 FebTiafoe3-6 7-6 6-4L
27 FebVacherot6-2 2-6 3-6W
26 FebNakashima6-4 6-4L
Recent form bar chartLLLWW

2W 3L last 5

13 MarKecmanovic6-4 7-6L
11 MarMcDonald3-6 6-2 7-5L
8 MarNorrie6-2 6-3L
6 MarArnaldi0-6 1-6W
4 MarSvajda4-6 2-6W

Clay court stats

McDonald
Stat
Nakashima
35%
Win rate
50.7%
21–39
W–L
38–37

Avg stats — last 5

1st serve %60%
1st serve won70%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted40%
BP saved70%
Aces4
Double faults2
1st serve %70%
1st serve won80%
2nd serve won50%
BP converted30%
BP saved60%
Aces13
Double faults1

Head to head

41
Clay 01
Hard 40
M. McDonald vs B. Nakashima head to head match history
DateTournamentSurfaceRoundWinnerScore
HoustonClay1/8-finalsNakashima1-6 5-7
ATP AtlantaHard1/16-finalsMcDonald2-6 4-6
ATP AcapulcoHard1/8-finalsMcDonald6-2
Australian OpenHard1/64-finalsMcDonald6-7 6-7 6-1 7-6 4-6
CincinnatiHard1/32-finalsMcDonald5-7 2-6