J. Pegula shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 32. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.4. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving J. Pegula vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. Pegula has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -12 over recent matches.

M. Kostyuk comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -14.8 to 34.1, with at least one match where M. Kostyuk was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving M. Kostyuk vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure.