Odds
Player analysis
A. Sabalenka arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-9 opposition. Dominance has been solid and consistent, averaging DS +10.6 (range: -2.0 to 22.9). The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.5/10, leaving A. Sabalenka vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +19 over the last five.
C. Gauff shows a 4–1 form record, though the level of opposition has been mixed — average ranking of opponents is 31. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +7.6. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.4/10, leaving C. Gauff vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +11 over the last five.
Recent form
5W 0L last 5
| 15 Mar | Rybakina | 3-6 6-3 7-6 | W |
| 14 Mar | Noskova | 6-3 6-4 | W |
| 12 Mar | Mboko | 7-6 6-4 | W |
| 10 Mar | Osaka | 6-2 6-4 | W |
| 8 Mar | Cristian | 6-4 6-1 | W |
4W 1L last 5
| 6 Mar | Rakhimova | 6-3 7-6 | W |
| 20 Feb | Svitolina | 6-4 6-7 6-4 | L |
| 19 Feb | Eala | 6-0 6-2 | W |
| 18 Feb | Mertens | 2-6 7-6 6-3 | W |
| 17 Feb | Kalinskaya | 6-4 6-4 | W |
Clay court stats
Avg stats — last 5
Head to head
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Round | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finals - Riyadh | Indoor | Sabalenka | 7-6 6-2 | ||
| French Open | Clay | Final | Gauff | 7-6 2-6 4-6 | |
| Madrid | Clay | Final | Sabalenka | 6-3 7-6 | |
| WTA Finals - Riyadh | Indoor | Semi-finals | Gauff | 6-7 3-6 | |
| WTA Wuhan | Hard | Semi-finals | Sabalenka | 1-6 6-4 6-4 | |
| WTA Australian Open | Hard | Semi-finals | Sabalenka | 6-7 4-6 | |
| WTA US Open | Hard | Final | Gauff | 2-6 6-3 6-2 | |
| WTA Indian Wells | Hard | Quarter-finals | Sabalenka | 4-6 | |
| Toronto | Hard | 1/8-finals | Gauff | 5-7 6-4 6-7 | |
| Lexington | Hard | 1/8-finals | Gauff | 7-6 4-6 6-4 |

