Odds
Player analysis
A. Davidovich Fokina has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -25.5 to 15.7, with at least one match where A. Davidovich Fokina was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.2/10, leaving A. Davidovich Fokina vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Break point efficiency is a red flag — A. Davidovich Fokina has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -14 over recent matches.
J. Fonseca has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point margins have been modest — DS averaging +5.3. Wins have been functional rather than dominant. Serve quality has been average (6.8/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — J. Fonseca has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -19 over recent matches.
Recent form
3W 2L last 5
| 10 Mar | Tien | 4-6 6-1 7-6 | L |
| 8 Mar | Mensik | 6-2 4-6 6-2 | W |
| 7 Mar | Svajda | 7-6 6-2 | W |
| 26 Feb | Bellucci | 6-3 6-3 | L |
| 24 Feb | Altmaier | 5-7 3-6 | W |
3W 2L last 5
| 11 Mar | Sinner | 6-7 6-7 | L |
| 9 Mar | Paul | 6-2 6-3 | W |
| 7 Mar | Khachanov | 6-4 6-7 4-6 | W |
| 5 Mar | Collignon | 7-6 6-4 | W |
| 20 Feb | Buse | 7-5 3-6 4-6 | L |

