F. Auger-Aliassime has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -1.0, meaning F. Auger-Aliassime has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. Serve quality has been average (6.5/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability.

D. Medvedev comes in with a 4–1 record over recent matches, with wins against quality opposition in the top 24 on average. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -5.7 to 19.3, with at least one match where D. Medvedev was clearly outplayed. Serve quality has been average (6.6/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency has been exceptional (+48) — converting opportunities and shutting down threats at the critical moments.