Odds
Player analysis
E. Mertens has been inconsistent recently, going 3–2 over the last five matches. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -21.1 to 30.1, with at least one match where E. Mertens was clearly outplayed. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 6.0/10, leaving E. Mertens vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +16 over the last five.
A. Li comes into this match in difficult form — 1 wins from the last 5. Point statistics tell a concerning story — average DS of -5.2, meaning A. Li has been on the wrong side of most exchanges over five matches. The serve has been a concern — averaging only 5.6/10, leaving A. Li vulnerable on second serve and facing frequent return pressure. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +16 over the last five.
Recent form
3W 2L last 5
| 9 Mar | Bencic | 2-6 3-6 | L |
| 8 Mar | Bucsa | 6-2 6-1 | W |
| 18 Feb | Gauff | 2-6 7-6 6-3 | L |
| 17 Feb | Navarro | 6-2 6-2 | W |
| 15 Feb | Bouzkova | 2-6 2-6 | W |
1W 4L last 5
| 4 Mar | Gibson | 6-3 7-5 | L |
| 26 Feb | Sonmez | 6-3 6-7 4-6 | L |
| 15 Feb | Noskova | 6-3 5-7 6-4 | L |
| 11 Feb | Cocciaretto | 6-7 7-5 4-6 | L |
| 10 Feb | Frech | 3-6 4-6 | W |

