J. Sinner arrives in exceptional form — five wins from five, all against top-22 opposition. Serve quality has been average (6.9/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Good performance in key moments — break point efficiency of +14 over the last five.

M. Cilic comes into this match in difficult form — 2 wins from the last 5. Form is mixed — DS ranging from -5.8 to 17.8, with at least one match where M. Cilic was clearly outplayed. Serve quality has been average (6.6/10) — neither a weapon nor a significant liability. Break point efficiency is a red flag — M. Cilic has been losing the important points, with a BP efficiency of -12 over recent matches.