CLV Tracker
Closing Line Value — did the line move in your favour?
38 matches · 37 with result
| Match | Tournament | Home CLV | Away CLV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 B. Winter Lopez D. Blanch✓ | CH-M Murcia Murcia - Semi-finals | 3.03 → 3.16 -4.1% vs mkt: +5.3% | 1.39 → 1.37 +1.8% vs mkt: +0.6% | D. Blanch1-6 2-6 |
 G. A. Boitan A. Fiorentini✓ | CH-M Zadar Zadar - Semi-finals | 1.11 → 1.10 +0.3% vs mkt: +5.2% | 7.05 → 7.17 -1.7% vs mkt: -1.1% | A. Fiorentini3-6 6-3 3-6 |
 A. Kalinina✓ T. Zidansek | CH-W Antalya 3 Antalya 3 - Final | 1.41 → 1.51 -6.7% vs mkt: +7.5% | 3.02 → 2.68 +12.7% vs mkt: -6.0% | A. Kalinina6-0 6-3 |
 B. JonesS. Perez Contri✓ | CH-M Zadar Zadar - Semi-finals | 5.28 → 5.80 -9.0% vs mkt: -3.3% | 1.17 → 1.15 +1.8% vs mkt: +3.1% | S. Perez Contri2-6 0-6 |
 F. Pieczonka✓ M. Janvier | CH-M Murcia Murcia - Semi-finals | 2.55 → 2.46 +3.7% vs mkt: -1.6% | 1.53 → 1.57 -2.9% vs mkt: +2.0% | F. Pieczonka6-3 6-4 |
 F. Ferreira Silva✓ Y. Milev | CH-M Murcia Murcia - Semi-finals | 1.23 → 1.23 +0.6% vs mkt: +1.4% | 4.21 → 4.38 -3.9% vs mkt: +18.4% | F. Ferreira Silva6-0 6-4 |
 M. Trungelliti✓M. Cecchinato | CH-M Kigali 2 Kigali 2 - Final | 1.82 → 1.83 -0.7% vs mkt: +6.0% | 2.07 → 2.07 0.0% vs mkt: +1.5% | M. Trungelliti4-6 6-0 6-3 |
 P. Kotov✓F. Romano | CH-M Cherbourg Cherbourg - Final | 1.24 → 1.24 0.0% vs mkt: +1.0% | 4.38 → 4.38 0.0% vs mkt: +8.2% | P. Kotov6-2 7-5 |
 A. PaulsonM. Vrbensky✓ | CH-M Murcia Murcia - Semi-finals | 2.23 → 2.23 0.0% vs mkt: +0.5% | 1.67 → 1.68 -0.5% vs mkt: +1.8% | M. Vrbensky4-6 7-5 6-7 |
| A. Juan ManoF. Arnaboldi✓ | CH-M Murcia Murcia - Semi-finals | 2.08 → 2.14 -2.8% vs mkt: +18.9% | 1.76 → 1.73 +2.2% vs mkt: -12.9% | F. Arnaboldi6-2 3-6 3-6 |
L. Borrelli L. Wessels✓ | CH-M Murcia Murcia - Semi-finals | 10.08 → 10.08 0.0% vs mkt: +34.4% | 1.06 → 1.06 0.0% vs mkt: +2.2% | L. Wessels4-6 4-6 |
F. Gill✓ N. Parizzia | CH-M Murcia Murcia - Semi-finals | 1.09 → 1.09 0.0% vs mkt: -1.2% | 8.14 → 8.14 0.0% vs mkt: +35.7% | F. Gill6-2 6-4 |
| D. Jorda Sanchis✓D. A. Barreto Sanchez | CH-M Murcia Murcia - Semi-finals | 1.41 → 1.41 0.0% vs mkt: -2.2% | 2.96 → 2.96 0.0% vs mkt: +6.5% | D. Jorda Sanchis6-0 6-3 |
E. Ambarzumjan G. Campana Lee✓ | CH-M Zadar Zadar - Semi-finals | 7.64 → 7.78 -1.8% vs mkt: +19.7% | 1.10 → 1.10 -0.2% vs mkt: +2.6% | G. Campana Lee0-6 2-6 |
| M. Cerny✓G. La Vela | CH-M Zadar Zadar - Semi-finals | 1.60 → 1.62 -0.9% vs mkt: +4.3% | 2.36 → 2.35 +0.4% vs mkt: +7.8% | M. Cerny6-2 6-0 |
| S. Pieri✓ F. Rakonic | CH-M Zadar Zadar - Semi-finals | 1.01 → 1.00 +0.1% vs mkt: -0.5% | 41.88 → 48.33 -13.3% vs mkt: +339.4% | S. Pieri6-1 6-0 |
M. Mrva T. Samuel✓ | CH-M Hersonissos 2 Hersonissos 2 - Final | 3.69 → 3.82 -3.4% vs mkt: +1.3% | 1.30 → 1.29 +0.6% vs mkt: -1.9% | T. Samuel2-6 3-6 |
D. Dinev E. Kirkin✓ | CH-M Zadar Zadar - Semi-finals | 6.33 → 6.43 -1.6% vs mkt: +1.9% | 1.13 → 1.13 -0.3% vs mkt: +2.7% | E. Kirkin2-6 2-6 |
L. Lokoli✓ K. Kajin | CH-M Zadar Zadar - Semi-finals | 1.09 → 1.09 +0.4% vs mkt: +2.5% | 7.99 → 8.53 -6.3% vs mkt: +17.7% | L. Lokoli6-3 6-1 |
| M. BertimonO. Krutykh✓ | CH-M Zadar Zadar - Semi-finals | 3.40 → 3.40 0.0% vs mkt: +4.6% | 1.33 → 1.33 0.0% vs mkt: +2.1% | O. Krutykh6-7 4-6 |
S. Palosi✓ M. Ujvary | CH-M Zadar Zadar - Semi-finals | 1.13 → 1.12 +0.7% vs mkt: -0.2% | 6.37 → 6.65 -4.2% vs mkt: +20.9% | S. Palosi7-6 7-6 |
 M. Basic✓N. Oliynykov | CH-M Zadar Zadar - Semi-finals | 1.02 → 1.01 +0.5% vs mkt: +0.2% | 23.92 → 29.46 -18.8% vs mkt: +194.6% | M. Basic6-1 6-2 |
| M. BellucciM. Navone✓ | CH-M Cap Cana Cap Cana - Final | 1.54 → 1.54 0.0% vs mkt: +4.3% | 2.59 → 2.59 0.0% vs mkt: +7.9% | M. Navone5-7 4-6 |
 T. Yuzuki✓M. Gonzalez Fernandez | CH-M Morelos Morelos - Semi-finals | 3.63 → 3.31 +9.7% vs mkt: -2.6% | 1.29 → 1.35 -4.0% vs mkt: +5.3% | T. Yuzuki7-6 6-4 |
 R. Jauregui Sainz De RozasG. Dalmasso✓ | CH-M Morelos Morelos - Semi-finals | 5.28 → 5.35 -1.3% vs mkt: +13.8% | 1.17 → 1.17 -0.3% vs mkt: +1.6% | G. Dalmasso3-6 2-6 |
| Q. Vandecasteele✓F. Corwin | CH-M Morelos Morelos - Semi-finals | 1.44 → 1.44 -0.2% vs mkt: +0.3% | 2.83 → 2.85 -0.7% vs mkt: +7.5% | Q. Vandecasteele6-2 7-5 |
A. Sabalenka E. Rybakina✓ | WTA WTA Indian Wells WTA Indian Wells - Final | 1.66 → 1.67 -0.5% vs mkt: +2.3% | 2.38 → 2.36 +0.8% vs mkt: +0.4% | E. Rybakina3-6 6-3 7-6 |
| G. A. OlivieriH. Rocha✓ | CH-M Santiago Santiago - Final | 3.42 → 3.62 -5.5% vs mkt: +4.9% | 1.35 → 1.32 +2.2% vs mkt: +4.7% | H. Rocha6-4 6-4 |
 J. S. Gomez✓S. Heredia | CH-M Morelos Morelos - Semi-finals | 2.09 → 2.04 +2.5% vs mkt: +2.5% | 1.76 → 1.81 -3.0% vs mkt: +4.8% | J. S. Gomez7-5 4-6 4-6 |
| A. Sau Franco✓A. F. Rubio Fierros | CH-M Morelos Morelos - Semi-finals | 8.10 → 8.25 -1.8% vs mkt: +7.1% | 1.09 → 1.09 -0.2% vs mkt: +4.8% | A. Sau Franco4-6 6-0 1-6 |
 J. Flores✓M. Covato | CH-M Morelos Morelos - Semi-finals | 1.35 → 1.35 -0.3% vs mkt: +32.5% | 3.27 → 3.29 -0.6% vs mkt: +9.7% | J. Flores7-6 6-2 |
| D. Medvedev✓J. Sinner | ATP ATP Indian Wells ATP Indian Wells - Final | 4.58 → 4.33 +5.8% vs mkt: +2.4% | 1.23 → 1.26 -2.1% vs mkt: 0.0% | D. Medvedev6-7 6-7 |
| M. Giron✓E. Quinn | CH-M Phoenix Phoenix - Final | 1.71 → 1.67 +2.3% vs mkt: +7.1% | 2.23 → 2.30 -3.0% vs mkt: -2.1% | M. Giron6-7 6-4 5-7 |
| J. S. OsorioA. Reymond | CH-M Morelos Morelos - Semi-finals | 3.83 → 3.39 +13.0% vs mkt: -10.8% | 1.27 → 1.34 -4.9% vs mkt: +10.4% | Pending |
 T. Colson✓S. A. Linde Palacios | CH-M Morelos Morelos - Semi-finals | 1.04 → 1.04 +0.3% vs mkt: -0.3% | 13.65 → 15.34 -11.0% vs mkt: +104.5% | T. Colson6-0 6-1 |
 V. Braga J. Ingildsen✓ | CH-M Asuncion Asuncion - Semi-finals | 10.59 → 13.56 -21.9% vs mkt: +98.0% | 1.06 → 1.04 +1.4% vs mkt: -1.5% | J. Ingildsen2-6 0-6 |
A. Baez V. Basel✓ | CH-M Asuncion Asuncion - Semi-finals | 2.50 → 2.71 -7.8% vs mkt: -1.4% | 1.55 → 1.48 +4.3% vs mkt: +5.9% | V. Basel2-6 6-2 1-6 |
| B. Braga✓J. Cundom | CH-M Asuncion Asuncion - Semi-finals | 15.75 → 24.43 -35.5% vs mkt: +139.5% | 1.03 → 1.02 +1.4% vs mkt: +0.8% | B. Braga4-6 3-6 |
B. Winter Lopez
D. Blanch✓
G. A. Boitan
A. Fiorentini✓
A. Kalinina✓
T. Zidansek
B. Jones
S. Perez Contri✓
F. Pieczonka✓
M. Janvier
F. Ferreira Silva✓
Y. Milev
M. Trungelliti✓
M. Cecchinato
P. Kotov✓
F. Romano
A. Paulson
M. Vrbensky✓
A. Juan Mano
F. Arnaboldi✓
L. Borrelli
L. Wessels✓
F. Gill✓
N. Parizzia
D. Jorda Sanchis✓
D. A. Barreto Sanchez
E. Ambarzumjan
G. Campana Lee✓
M. Cerny✓
G. La Vela
S. Pieri✓
T. Samuel✓
D. Dinev
E. Kirkin✓
L. Lokoli✓K. Kajin
M. Bertimon
O. Krutykh✓
S. Palosi✓
M. Ujvary
M. Basic✓
M. Bellucci
M. Navone✓
T. Yuzuki✓
M. Gonzalez FernandezR. Jauregui Sainz De Rozas
G. Dalmasso✓
Q. Vandecasteele✓
F. Corwin
A. Sabalenka
E. Rybakina✓
G. A. Olivieri
H. Rocha✓
J. S. Gomez✓
S. Heredia
A. Sau Franco✓A. F. Rubio Fierros
J. Flores✓
M. Covato
D. Medvedev✓
J. Sinner
M. Giron✓
E. QuinnJ. S. Osorio
A. Reymond
T. Colson✓S. A. Linde Palacios
V. BragaJ. Ingildsen✓
V. Basel✓B. Braga✓
J. CundomClosing Line Value Report — Sunday, March 15, 2026
Covering 13 active tournaments, the March 15, 2026 closing line report tracks 38 completed Pinnacle markets. Sharp signals were present in 20 matches, and 5 results went against the pre-match favourite. Full CLV data, line movements and upset analysis follow below.
Closing Line Value Leaders: March 15, 2026
Asuncion produced the day's most significant line movement: B. Braga opened at 15.75 and closed at 24.43, a 35.5% shift consistent with sharp action. The match ended 4-6 3-6. Elsewhere, V. Braga in Asuncion showed a 21.9% Pinnacle move (10.59 → 13.56), giving early bettors -21.9% closing line value. In the Challenger circuit, N. Oliynykov versus M. Basic in Zadar registered the third largest move of the day at 18.8%.
Where the Favourites Failed on March 15, 2026
March 15, 2026 produced 5 results where the underdog prevailed. The biggest came from ATP Indian Wells: D. Medvedev beat J. Sinner 6-7 6-7 at 4.58. In Asuncion, B. Braga overcame 15.75 odds to defeat J. Cundom 4-6 3-6. These upsets had limited CLV implication for the winners — their lines barely moved before close — suggesting the market did not anticipate these outcomes. That is precisely when upset bets carry the most theoretical value.
Tournament Final Recap — March 15, 2026
D. Medvedev versus J. Sinner in the ATP Indian Wells final was the most-watched market of March 15, 2026. Opening prices were D. Medvedev at 4.58 and J. Sinner at 1.23. Significant line movement toward D. Medvedev — 5.5% — preceded the match and was confirmed by the 6-7 6-7 result. This is a textbook example of closing line value: the sharp money that moved the line was directionally correct.
End of Day: CLV Totals for March 15, 2026
By close on March 15, 2026, 38 Pinnacle tennis markets had settled. Statistical highlights: 76% favourites successful, 5 underdogs prevailed, 8 markets saw zero line movement from open to close. The zero-movement matches typically involve heavy favourites (odds below 1.10) where Pinnacle's confidence is high and sharp money finds no edge to exploit. 21% of March 15, 2026's markets fell into this category, above the typical daily average.
Frequently Asked Questions — Closing Line Value in Tennis Betting
What is closing line value (CLV) in tennis betting?
Closing line value measures the difference between the odds you bet at and the final odds Pinnacle offered just before the match started. If you bet at 2.00 and the match closed at 1.80, you have positive CLV — you got a better price than the final market. CLV is widely considered the most reliable indicator of long-term profitability in sports betting, because Pinnacle's closing line incorporates all available sharp money and is the most accurate probability estimate available to the public.
Why does DeuceHQ use Pinnacle as the reference bookmaker?
Pinnacle is the industry benchmark for sharp money. Unlike most bookmakers, Pinnacle does not limit or ban winning bettors — they welcome sharp action. This means their odds reflect the true market consensus and are harder to beat. When Pinnacle's line moves significantly from open to close, it signals that informed bettors have entered the market. The vs mkt column on this page compares Pinnacle's closing price to the average of other major bookmakers, showing where the sharpest market diverged from the wider betting market.
How is the CLV percentage calculated on this page?
CLV% is calculated as ((opening odds − closing odds) / closing odds) × 100 for the favourite, and the inverse for the underdog. A positive CLV% for the home player means their odds shortened from open to close — the market became more confident in their victory. A negative CLV% means their odds drifted — the market moved against them. All calculations on this page use Pinnacle's official open and close prices sourced in real time.